Curious: when do I estimate I can get my PPL, minding for pre-requisited exams and weather.

As of this day (October 2023) I have been under instruction for approximately 14 hours so far, and would still have the following to come. To note, the hours required and lessons needed are completely based on my guesswork and likely to be far from the actual:

• Circuit, probably 2 hours more to be confident ← 2 lessons

• Solo Circuit, probably 1 hr ← 1 lesson

• Advanced Turning, Forced Landings, Precautionary landings, ~ 4 hrs ← 4 lesson

• Navigations (4 units) & various practicing of previous modules ~ 6 + 3 ~~ 10 hrs ← 10 lesson

• Cross Country Solo (assume twice) = 10 hrs ← 2 lessons

• 15 hr buffer (typical PPL needs 55 hrs) ← 10 lesson

To note this is the CAA requirements

• Hours - Total (min) 45 (currently 14.5hrs in) Hours - Dual instruction (min) 25 Hours - supervised Solo (min) 10, of which min 5 hrs of Cross Country (270km + 2 full landings other aerodomes)

Estimated Total lessons still to go = 29 lessons, 42 hours

• equate to 29 lessons → 29 weeks (1 lesson a week)

assuming 30% bad weather or travel conflict penalty

• 29 x 1.3 ~ 40, i.e. 40 weeks to complete

• i.e. 40 weeks from 7/10/2023 is 13th July 2024. So my estimate is I might obtain my PPL on Saturday 13th July 2024.

Radio transmission practical: will likely need one month to prepare, and if i do this after 9th december 2023, this will mean the target is to complete this by Mid-Jan 2024. This isn’t a constraining factor with my CFI’s advising that its best to perform this as close to final exam date as possible.

summarising the milestones so far and including aforementioned forecast

• 19/5/2023 → First practical lesson ✅

• 19/6/2023 → passed first theorectical exam: air law

• 11/7/2023 → passed Ops Proc

• 6/8/2023 → passed Meteorology

• 13/8/2023 → first circuit training✅

• 3/9/2023 → first visit and TOL, conington aerodrome ✅

• 24/9/2023 → passed Navigation ✅

• 1/10/2023 → Best landing during Circuit Training ✅

• 28/10/2023 → est for passing both AC gen Knowledge & Principle of flight exam

• 4/11/2023 → est First Solo

• 9/12/2023 → forecast Passed remaining theorectical exams

• 21/1/2024 → forecast passed practical radio exam

• 04/05/2024 → with fair weather, no new distractions- forecast completion of PPL course

• 13/07/2024 → assumed 30% of classes cancelled, forecast completion of PPL training